Post Season - Can the Tigers Beat the Yankees?

 So far it's a dead heat.  After 4 games the Tigers have split with the Yankees 2 games apiece. They've also been outscored by the Yankees 26-14 thanks to a dismal outing by the bullpen in the Game 4 loss to the Yankees by a score of 10-1.  Throw that one out (don't we wish) and both teams have played pretty tight (16-13).  Can they win in Game 5?  No professional team likes to get embarrased the way the Tigers just did, so it's possible.  Below are the playoff numbers on the Tiger players to date.  We can see some issues with performances so far.  Based on how they've played, let's lay out what COULD be a good lineup and a scenario for winning Game 5.  (see below)Tigers PostSeason(2011)

Starting Pitching has actually been pretty good.  Porcello takes the lead so far after a decent outing giving up only 4 runs and walking only 1 batter facing the Yankees in Game 4.  Normally that's enough runs for a Tiger win.  Fister's first outing was the only one where a Tiger starter got hit hard with 7 hits and 2 walks in his 5 inning appearance.  Even then he looked good enough, with only 2 walks and a 3-1 strikeout to walk ratio.  He should rebound in Game 5, showing more of the same high strikeout, low walk pitching we've come to expect.

The bullpen has been the big letdown so far.  Coke, Alburquerque, and Schlereth could not hold the Yankees to the 4 runs Porcello handed them.  Valverde has been VERY dangerous in the 9th-inning base runners he has allowed, even though he managed to get the Win for Scherzer in Game 2 and the Save for Verlander in Game 3.  Let's hope Game 5 will be a different story.

Hitting has been the real issue.  The numbers so far do NOT look like the Central Division Champion hitters.   Inge, Raburn, and Kelly are at the top, instead of Cabrerra, Martinez, and Avila.  The Yankees are going after Victor Martinez and it shows in his batting average (only .214 in the post-season so far).  They have also contained Cabrerra... who has only hit .250.  It appears the strategy is to pitch away from Cabrerra and take their chances with Martinez, and it's working out. In the meantime Alex Avila is 0 for 4 games.

That has to change.  For the Tigers to win Game 5, Cabrerra, Martinez, and Avila have to show up to hit.

So.. what would be the ideal?  How can the Tigers line up to win?  What pitchers need to step up?

First.. Fister has to have a good outing and get through the 6th inning, and the 7th.  If he can do that, Benoit and Valverde should be able to handle the 8th and 9th.  If he can't..and bows out early.. look for Brad Penny to step in for a couple innings, and perhaps Ryan Perry or Daniel Schlereth can get it to the 8th inning for Benoit.  I would be surprised if Coke or Alburquerque show back up after the performances in Game 4.

Hitting?  Look for some changes in the lineup.  Austin Jackson(CF) leading off, Magglio Ordonez back in the lineup in RF.  Santiago just doesn't cut it behind the plate so look for Ryan Raburn to get the start at 2nd.  Betemit is 0 for 3 games with 4 strikeouts in 8 at-bats.  Inge (or Kelly) will get the start at 3rd.  The Tigers will hope that Avila, Cabrerra, and in particular Martinez have finally figured out the Yankees.  If they come to play big.. it will be a game to be remembered.

GO TIGERS!   ---Rob